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Sep 3

By Edwin Chen

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) — George W. Bush became the first incumbent president to skip his party’s nominating convention in 40 years — and John McCain’s supporters took no offense. Bush was literally a remote presence, addressing the gathering last night via satellite from Washington. “He is ready to lead this nation,” Bush said of John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee. The president canceled his in-person appearance at the convention Sept. 1 to supervise emergency preparedness for Hurricane Gustav, which hit the Gulf Coast. When his image appeared on the large screens inside convention hall in St. Paul, Minnesota, Bush received a rousing reception that belied his low job-approval ratings nationally. At the same time, Bush’s absence was something of a relief to McCain, who has been trying to defuse the Democratic effort to tether him to the unpopular president. “Bush’s absence from the convention was a plus for McCain, who has sought to maintain his distance from the president without seeming to disparage him,” said Allan Lichtman, a political scientist at American University in Washington. Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert said the McCain camp is “probably” not unhappy that Bush stayed away. “It doesn’t hurt him,” Representative Ray LaHood of Illinois said.

Party Elders

Conventions typically pay homage to party elders. This time, however, the Bushes are playing a minor role even though the family is arguably the most successful in the Republican Party’s history. Bush’s father, former President George H.W. Bush, and mother, Barbara, showed up in the arena yet neither they nor the president’s brother Jeb, the former two-term governor of Florida, will be featured speakers. The last time a president missed a convention was when Lyndon Johnson skipped the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in 1968. Though the Bush brand has been devalued, many of his former aides are playing substantial roles in the McCain campaign. Chief among them is Steve Schmidt, who this summer took charge of the McCain campaign’s day-to-day operations. He ran the “war room” during Bush’s re-election campaign in 2004. Schmidt is among a dozen or more top strategists who once worked in the Bush campaigns or his White House. Most of them retain their direct pipelines to Bush’s top political strategist Karl Rove, according to Charlie Black, a top McCain adviser.

Pulled Near Even

Combined, their efforts enabled McCain to pull near even with Obama in many polls last month even after the Democratic candidate’s high-profile appearance in Berlin. Yet the ascendancy of advisers like Schmidt and Nicolle Wallace, who was the Bush White House communications director, is complicating McCain’s efforts to distance himself from Bush. That’s because Democrats have been trying to portray a McCain presidency as a third Bush term. Now they are buttressing their argument by pointing to the McCain advisers who worked for Bush. “Senator McCain, who once railed against the smears of Karl Rove when he was the target, has morphed into Candidate McCain, who is using the same Rove tactics, the same Rove staff, the same old politics of fear and smear,” said Senator John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004, said last week at the Democratic convention.

Flip-Flop Ad

Kerry should know. It was the Rove-Schmidt war room four years ago that produced an instant ad showing Kerry telling a veterans group in West Virginia that he had backed the $87 billion Iraq war supplemental funding bill before voting against it. The ad reinforced a public perception of Kerry as a flip- flopper and further damaged his candidacy. “These are people who know how to make the stuff work at a presidential level,” said Reed Galen, an ex-Bush campaign operative who was McCain’s deputy campaign manager until last year. “In top positions in a presidential campaign, you need people with presidential campaign experience in your top spots,” said Charlie Cook, an independent political analyst. “In the Republican Party today, that means Bushies.”

Mark Salter, a McCain confidant, described the former Bush aides as “a bunch of good people” whose work for the president “shouldn’t be held against them.” Political analysts credit Schmidt, a burly man with a shaved head whom McCain calls “Sergeant Schmidt,” for imposing order and discipline in a campaign that lacked both. While in the White House, Schmidt, 37, played a behind-the- scenes role in shepherding through the Senate the nominations of John Roberts and Samuel Alito to the U.S. Supreme Court. In recent weeks, Schmidt’s rapid-response creed exhibited itself repeatedly, seeming to catch Obama off-guard at times. “There’s been a very impressive turn-around” under Schmidt’s day-to-day guidance, said Galen. “Before, they were in a survival mode for a while. Now they have a sharp message and they’ve taken the fight to Obama.”

Sep 3
Ballots and Wallets
icon1 Bruce Allmighty | icon2 Politics | icon4 09 3rd, 2008| icon3No Comments »

by Andrés Martinez
The Republicans and Democrats will blow a billion dollars on getting a candidate elected this year. That’s a serious bargain.

illustration of a red pile of cans and a blue pile of cans

Most civic-minded folks who care about politics wince when they hear about the amounts of money involved. One typical editorial, in the Orlando Sentinel last April, called the costs of the presidential race disturbing. Even some of the candidates find the sums distasteful. John McCain famously spearheaded the campaign-finance-reform effort, and back in April, Barack Obama felt compelled to tell the Associated Press, “The fact that I am raising obscene amounts of money for this presidential race doesn’t make me a hypocrite.”

But why all the carping? Don’t the stakes justify spending a billion dollars? Microsoft is shelling out $500 million to promote its new Vista operating system; shouldn’t a potential presidency entail an equally robust marketing effort? (See costs of some recent ad campaigns versus costs of political campaigns.)  The president, after all, oversees an almost $3 trillion budget (funded mostly by our taxes), decides when to send in the troops (and can do so almost single-handedly), and gets to nominate every new federal judge (most notably, the Supreme Court justices).

Given the magnitude of the decision and the cost of any branding campaign, the election industry’s spending of a billion dollars (over a four-year period) hardly seems overblown—especially for candidates who race onto the field with little or no brand identity. Critics argue that the presidential candidates are forced to spend too much time filling their campaign war chests and that this mad money empowers bundlers, who seek to increase their influence by bringing donors together. But such concerns might have less to do with overall spending than with the artificially low caps on individual contributions ($2,300 for the primary season, $2,300 more for the general election). Is there some study out there suggesting that presidential candidates would be corrupted by a $5,000 donation, but for $4,600, their integrity lives on unscathed?

It’s frustrating that while the government can’t limit your spending as a candidate, it can limit your donations without violating the First Amendment. So Michael Bloomberg could drop $2 billion to try to get himself elected president, but he can’t even donate five grand to someone he thinks would do a better job.

Much of the whining about massive spending stems from critics’ elitist view of politics. If we were all conscientious enough to read the New York Times, watch every presidential debate, and attend the church of Russert every Sunday, then campaigns wouldn’t have to vie for our attention in the chaotic consumer marketplace. But it doesn’t work that way in our democracy.

The pundits who decry high campaign costs are often the same people who rail against low voter turnout. Their angst is contradictory. Turning out voters takes money—lots of it. In 2004, the Bush campaign spent $345 million, and the Kerry campaign spent $310 million—both recordbreaking sums, which were credited with increasing turnout to 122 million voters. That $655 million total worked out to $5.37 spent per “consumer.”

Even though that’s a low per capita cost, the increasing price of campaigns is swamping the public financing program that matches funds for candidates who abide by its draconian spending limits. Meanwhile, the public’s support of the program is plummeting. Voters don’t seem to want their tax dollars earmarked for candidates they don’t support. All of the 2008 front-runners opted out of the program for the primary season, as Bush and Kerry did in 2004.

Fundraising ability does reflect political appeal in our market-based political culture. Given the national mood, it’s hardly surprising that both the Democratic Party’s establishment candidate, Hillary Clinton, and its insurgent, Obama, raised more than $100 million last year, while no Republican did. Nor is money always the deciding factor: The low-budget Republican candidate Mike Huckabee handily upset Mitt Romney’s juggernaut in the Iowa caucuses. All in all, 2008 seems to be a particularly bad year to be making the case that money plays a pernicious role in our politics.

Many citizens feel empowered by the chance to put their money where their vote is. Obama’s campaign had more than a quarter-million individual donors by mid-January, thanks in part to the instant access to campaigns provided by the internet.

The big money in presidential politics reflects both the resources used to reach the least engaged voters and the surging engagement of millions more. That’s not a matter for hand-wringing. That’s a cause for celebration.

Sep 3

Republican presidential candidate John McCain raised at least $47 million in August, his biggest haul of money so far and a sign that he is dispelling doubts about his campaign among conservative donors.

Two campaign officials discussed the fundraising Monday on the condition of anonymity because the numbers had not been officially tallied.

The amount was just shy of the $50 million that Democratic rival Barack Obama raised in July. Obama campaign officials would not comment on their August fundraising. The campaigns do not have to submit their August financial reports to the Federal Election Commission until Sept. 20.

One official said the campaign had raised $10 million since McCain announced Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate on Friday. Palin has emerged as a popular vice presidential candidate among social conservatives who have eyed McCain with suspicion.

Another official said that the Republican Party and the campaign will have between $224 million and $240 million available next week going into the fall campaign. That amount would include the $85 million in public funds that McCain will receive after he officially becomes the Republican nominee on Thursday.

A Republican Party official said the Republican National Committee raised about $22 million in August, shy of their $26 million sum in July.

After receiving the federal funds, McCain will be prohibited from raising any more money for his campaign. Any cash that is left in his account on Sept. 1 can be shifted to the Republican National Committee or state party committees that have federal accounts set aside to help his campaign.

The $47 million represents money raised by the campaign and McCain’s share of a joint victory fund set up with the Republican Party. In July, McCain’s last best fundraising performance, he raised $26 million.

The McCain camp expects the Republican National Committee’s McCain-Palin Victory ‘08 fund to raise $100 million in September and October, giving the campaign overall access to more than $300 million for the fall contest.

Obama decided to decline his share of federal funds, anticipating he could raise more though private donations. Fundraisers have said he and the Democratic National Committee need to raise more than $200 million in September and October to stay ahead of McCain and make the decision to reject public funds worthwhile.

Obama advisers have said they expected his already record-setting fundraising to have surged during the Democratic National Convention last week and after his acceptance speech at Mile High Stadium on Thursday.

Sep 3
The Democrats’ Lost Tribe
icon1 Bruce Allmighty | icon2 Politics | icon4 09 3rd, 2008| icon3No Comments »

by Roger Lowenstein

An author argues that without support from Catholics, the Democrats won’t win the presidency. But how to lure them back?

Priest and ballot box

Editor’s Note: Since this story was published, Barack Obama tapped his Senate colleague, Joe Biden of Delaware, to be his running mate on the Democratic ticket. For more on how Biden, a Catholic, impacts the 2008 race, click here.

Michael Sean Winters has a name for Democrats who have abandoned their party in recent years: Catholics.

In Left at the Altar: How the Democrats Lost the Catholics and How the Catholics Can Save the Democrats, Winters, a columnist for the Catholic World, argues that the Democrats discovered how to win presidential elections only when, in the 1930s, they formed a left-center alli­ance with working-class Catholics. This lasted half a century, until Catholic voters deserted Jimmy Carter in 1980. The party would lose five of the next seven elections, and in 2004, Senator John Kerry would fail to carry the Catholic vote. If that does not sound astonishing, imagine Senator Barack Obama losing the black vote. “How did the Demo­crats lose the Catholics?” a bishop asked Winters. He attempts to answer this very question.

Long before pundits fretted about women or the African American vote, Catholics created the template for demo­graphic groups in American politics. The target of shameful bigotry, Catholics were reviled by erstwhile liberals beginning with Tom Paine. In time, with their growing numbers, Catholics grabbed control of city halls (as would other groups), but the ultimate power in Washington remained off-limits. Even when John F. Kennedy secured his party’s nomination for president, the influential Calvinist preacher Norman Vincent Peale felt no shame in warning, “Our American culture is at stake.”

Kennedy rejected any religious influence on his politics; as Winters notes, he “was interested in bringing Catholics into the mainstream even if it meant leaving Catholicism itself at the door.” Not so dissimilarly, Obama’s appeal is partly that of a black man who does not wear his ethnicity on his sleeve.

What interests Winters, though, is not that Catholics opened the door for ethnic and religious groups, but the way in which their moral and cultural values helped inspire a successful Democratic coalition. He begins his story with Monsignor John Ryan, an early-20th-century priest who championed social causes like unemployment insurance. A founder of the National Council of Christians and Jews, Ryan became a confidant of such New Dealers as Frances Perkins and Felix Frankfurter. During Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first campaign for president, Ryan served as an informal adviser, and he gave the benediction at F.D.R.’s second inauguration. In naming this chapter “The Priest and the President Create the New Deal,” Winters rather comically overstates Ryan’s role; he presents no evidence that Ryan influenced Roosevelt, only that Ryan was in sync with F.D.R.’s agenda.

Yet is Winters right in arguing that the New Deal had a Catholic flavor? I think he is. The Democratic agenda of the ’30s was tied to the notion of community. Its vision was more social than economic; hence it offered support for artists, public-works programs, and farm communities. It championed labor unions, which had as profound a role in knitting together neighborhoods as did the Roman Catholic Church. The soul of the New Deal was aimed, parish­like, at neighborhood and town.

In contrast with contemporary Democrats, who idolize bankers, Roosevelt was suspicious of Wall Street. Blasted by the rich as a traitor to his class, Roosevelt also deviated from his Episcopalian background. The Protestant work ethic honors the entrepreneurial spirit; Catholicism is wary of it.

Were the New Deal alive today, Winters says, Democrats would stress social issues, such as reducing the number of high-school dropouts. Instead, they are fixated on economics. What most distinguishes modern Democrats is their focus on the rights of the individual as opposed to the welfare of the group. It is this un-Catholic vision that Winters says has led to the party’s downfall. Regrettably, Winters targets Kennedy as a primary culprit. By promising to keep (his) religion out of the White House, Winters argues, Kennedy in effect authorized Democrats to abandon morality.

Winters devotes much ink to proving that public figures (then and now) invoke the Bible. He does this to buttress his claim that, J.F.K. notwithstanding, religion is an inseparable aspect of American politics. But the examples he cites, among them Martin Luther King Jr.’s perorations, fail to make his point. They refer to Judeo-Christian ethics in a broad sense. What Winters has in mind is specifically Catholic morality.

Thus he faults the Democrats for being “unyielding” on abortion. He argues that allowing stem-cell research is not a straight­forward issue. He embraces Catholic limitations on warfare that would forbid the government from aiming weapons at civilian populations—the very strategy that kept the peace during the cold war. He is sympathetic to prayer in schools. Winters claims that by renouncing such patently Catholic positions, Democrats became “the de facto party of secularism.”

But is that why they started losing? Or is it because they abandoned the communitarian spirit of the New Deal? Winters conjoins the word secular with liberal and elite, a way of making it a slur, but community values can just as easily have a secular underpinning as a theological one. In fact, the party’s string of presidential winners—F.D.R., Harry Truman, J.F.K., and Lyndon Johnson—were all nonreligious in their public personas, though none were amoral.

Kennedy’s secular approach still seems the only way to govern in a diverse society, at least if one hopes to avoid a religious war. Indeed, Winters himself barely admits the possibility of well-intentioned disagreement with Catholic positions. In the arguments of the abortion-rights lobby, for example, the author hears “echoes of anti-Catholic bigotry.” But this is akin to imposing a religious test on the rest of us—a dubious strategy for retaking the White House.

Sep 2

According to Hitwise UK, UK Internet searches for ’sarah palin’, the recently announced Republican vice-presidential nominee, were 45% higher last week, than those for the previously most searched-for US nominee ‘barack obama’. The top website capturing visits from searches for Palin was Wikipedia (38% of searches), followed by Google News (4.5%).

US Politics Searches.png